Second-Generation Nuclear Warheads

Last updated: 20 January 2007

Driven by the need for a more modernised, more accurate, more reliable, and more survivable nuclear missile force, China began to develop second-generation smaller and lighter warheads in the early 1980s. The lighter payload of the new-generation submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) and mobile-launched solid-propellant strategic missiles required a lighter warhead. By the late 1980s, China began to deploy the smaller (~700kg) warheads on its second-generation missiles such as DF-21 and DF-31.

From September 1992 to July 1996 China conducted a series of eight underground nuclear tests which were calculated to be 20~80 kilotons yield. According to a Japanese government source, these tests were actually simultaneous detonation of multiple warheads—a common practice by both the U.S. and USSR. Overall, the yields since 1990 have suggested that two warheads have been in development: one in the 100~300kt range, and one in the 600~700kt range.

A United States House of Representatives Select Committee published a report in 1999 accusing the PRC of stealing the U.S. W-70 and W-88 Trident warhead technologies and applying them on its own thermal nuclear warhead designs. However, so far no concrete evidence has been found to support these claims.

On 20 September 1980, China successfully launched three satellites using a single FengBao-1 space launch vehicle, two satellites were delivered in the nose cone and one was delivered during stage separation. This was widely viewed as the first step of China developing the multiple re-entry vehicle (MRV) and multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicle (MIRV) technology.

In the late 1990s, China Academy of Launch Vehicle (CALT) developed the "Smart Dispenser" (SD), a three-axis stabilised upper stage using a solid rocket kick motor for insertion of two U.S.-made Iridium telecommunications satellites into a 780km circular orbit. The SD system was used on the CZ-2C (Long March 2C) space launch vehicle, but could potentially be modified to deploy MRVs.

Smart Dispenser (SD): The SD system is an upper stage using a solid rocket kick motor for insertion of satellites into Earth orbit. It could potentially be modified to deploy MRVs (Source: CASC)

A U.S. National Intelligence Council document published in September 1999 called "Foreign Missile Developments and Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States Through 2015" concluded that:

"China has had the technical capability to develop multiple RV payloads for twenty years. If China needed a multiple RV capability in the near term, Beijing could use a DF-31 type RV to develop and deploy a simple MRV or MIRV for the DF-5 in a few years. MIRVing a future mobile missile would be years away."

So far, China is not known to have developed or deployed any MRV or MIRV warheads, possibly because of its doubt over the effectiveness of the MRV/MIRV warheads compared to the same number of warheads launched by single-warhead missiles. Instead, China has been concentrating on penetration aids techniques such as decoys, chaff, and warhead manoeuvre to enhance its missiles' capability against the missile defence system.

Following China’s joining of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in September 1996, all nuclear test activities were stopped. However, some sources suggested that China may have carried out research on “subcritical” low-level nuclear tests and non-nuclear tests as part of its continuing nuclear weapon programme.

In 1999, China claimed that it had already successfully developed the enhanced radiation nuclear weapon ("neutron bomb"). It is believed that China is currently developing a range of warheads similar to the state-of-the-art nuclear weapons developed by other major nuclear powers. These would be miniaturised hardened thermal nuclear warheads with yields in the tens to hundreds of kilotons, as well as warheads with variable yield options.