In order to ensure “winning future wars under conditions of informationisation”, the People Republic of China (PRC) has been secretly developing an "asymmetric warfare" capability, which would strike key areas of the adversary if necessary to disable its combat system. The anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon was widely viewed by China’s military planners as an ideal means to deter an technologically superior enemy since modern military operations are increasingly relying on space-based systems to provide key intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, communications, and navigation capabilities.
According to some Chinese sources, Beijing's decision to develop and deploy the ASAT system has both long-term and short-term strategic objectives. The long-term objectives are to establish a strategic balance among the larger nations, and to break up the monopoly on utilisation of space that large space systems of the superpowers are holding; thus weakening their capabilities in information warfare. In the short-term, the PRC was seeking to strengthen its capabilities in controlling the usage of space globally, and change drastically the Chinese-America military balance so that the U.S. would not intervene easily in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait and at the Chinese perimeter.
In 1969, the PRC established the 2nd Space Academy, now known as China Academy of Defence Technology (CADT), to develop its ballistic missile defence and ASAT capabilities. Although the preliminary research on the ASAT weapon stopped in the late 1970s following the cancellation of the Project 640 missile defence programme, studies of relevant technologies such as high-power laser devices and space launch vehicles continued under the 863 High-Tech Programme initiated in the mid-1980s.
It appeared that the PRC has been following a number of paths simultaneously in developing its ASAT capabilities. In addition to the direct ascend kinetic kill vehicle weapon demonstrated during the 2007 ASAT weapon test, the PRC has also been developing other types of ASAT weapons, including the ground-based high-power laser for blinding enemy reconnaissance satellites, and space-based ASAT systems.
2007 ASAT Kill Vehicle Test (SC-19)
The KT-1 three-stage, solid-propellant launch vehicle (Chinese Internet)
Aviation Weeks and Space Technology magazine first reported on 17 January 2007 that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) had carried out a successful ASAT weapon test on 11 January, destroying a retired polar orbit meteorological satellite FengYun-1C. This was the first known ASAT test in more than 20 years. On 23 January, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao officially confirmed for the first time that a test had been carried out but insisted China was committed to the "peaceful development of outer space". The test has brought intensive media attention and also sparked concerns from the governments of the United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, and South Korea.
According to the report by Aviation Weeks and Space Technology magazine, the ASAT test was carried out on 11 January 2007 (12 January local time). A modified ballistic missile (or space launch vehicle) carrying a kinetic kill vehicle was launched from an unknown location near Xichang Satellite Launch Centre (XSLC). The kill vehicle successfully intercepted and destroyed the FY-1C satellite orbiting at about 530 miles (853km) polar orbit. The attack occurred at about 17:26 EST on 11 January 2007 (22:26 GMT, 06:26 on 12 January local time), when the satellite was passing over central China, about 45 degree above the horizon at Xichang. Tracking of the target satellite was managed from the Xi’an Satellite Monitor & Control Centre.
According to the report by the U.S. Aviation Week magazine, the azimuth from the launch point to the target was about 346 degree, or 15 degree west of due north. The target in orbit was heading south, so the intercept involved an extremely high-velocity, nearly head-on collision. Tracking data indicated that debris from the impact was ejected in all directions at 700~1,400mph. The event occurred 94 minutes before sunrise at Xichang, but the target satellite was in sunlight, enabling excellent opportunities to monitor the event from both Xichang and Jiuquan. USAF Defence Support Program missile warning satellites in geosynchronous orbit detected the Xichang launch of the ASAT kill vehicle, and USAF Space Command radars monitored the FY-1C orbit both before and after the test.
Dubbed the SC-19 by American intelligence, the Chinese anti-satellite weapon consists of a solid-fuel space launch vehicle (SLV) carrying an interceptor that is designed to crash into enemy satellites. The SLV may have been based on the KaiTuoZhe (KT) all-solid-propellant booster developed by China Aerospace Science & Industry Corporation (CASIC). The four-stage KT-1, allegedly derived from the DF-21 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), has the capability to place a 50kg payload into 600km low earth orbit (LEO). The larger-size KT-2 has the capability to deliver 300kg payload into the geosynchronous or polar orbit. The heavier KT-2A has an increased payload of 400kg for polar orbit missions.
The SLV can be launched from a truck-based transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) platform, without the need for a fixed launch facility. Thus the SLV can be pre-positioned anywhere in the country to intercept a flying-over satellite. As the mobile SLV system is very difficult to detect, it leaves the targeted side very little time for early warning and response.
Debate over the effectiveness of the Chinese kinetic kill vehicle remains. While some described the test as the world’s first direct ground-to-space anti-satellite attack (the U.S. test in 1985 was carried out with a missile launched from a F-15 fighter), others suggested that the test was no more than a staged showcase, since the launch of the missile was carefully timed and the satellite’s orbit was being raised by about 20 miles (32km) shortly before the test to make it easier to intercept. Also at low earth orbit (LEO), the missile can rely on ground-based radar for target tracking and final course corrections. However, at higher orbit, especially at geosynchronous orbit (GEO), it is almost impossible to use ground-based radar for such a role.
Some experts also suggested that satellites can make ASAT attack much more difficult by lowering their radar reflectivity or optical brightness along the attacker's expected line of approach. Another defence method is to use decoys, which can either be deployed when an attack is detected or can be sent, as a matter of routine, to fly in formation with the high-value target. When used in conjunction, satellite would eventually be able to protect themselves from a kinetic kill attack.
KT-1 launch spot (Chinese Internet)
Air-Launched SLV could potentially serve as a carrier for ASAT kill vehicle (Internet photo)
Ground-Based ASAT Laser
The PRC initialised researches on high-power laser for military uses in the 1970s. Although the development was temporarily halted in the 1980s, it was re-opened in the 1990s and had made some breakthrough after 2000. In October 2006, China allegedly fired high-power lasers at U.S. spy satellites flying over its territory, though this has never been officially confirmed. The U.S. officials claimed that China is developing laser ASAT weapons capable of blinding the electro-optical satellite operating at low-earth orbit (LEO).
Space-Based ASAT System
The PRC is developing the capability of using spacecraft, particularly small- and nano-satellite, for the ASAT role. In 2001, Hong Kong-based Sing Tao newspaper quoted unnamed Chinese sources that planning was underway to conduct testing of the ASAT system soon. It is not clear how much progress China has made in developing the ASAT system, but some ground testing may have been carried out.
According to the report, the Small Satellite Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Space Technology (CAST) developed and built the ASAT system, codenamed "parasitic satellite". In the novel ASAT system, a nanometre-sized "parasitic satellite" is deployed and attached to the enemy's satellite. During a conflict, commands are sent to the "parasitic satellite" which will interfere or destroy the host satellite.
